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Wouldn’t you love a crystal ball?
This report provides an overview of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) latest
projections on the labor force, industry employment and occupational employment from
2006 to 2016. The 10-year projections are updated every two years by BLS in order to
provide the future employment trends that aid decision-makers in a variety of activities,
such as career counseling and career choice, training and education planning, and policy
making and planning. The projections cover trends in the economy, the demographic
makeup of the labor force and employment growth in more than 820 occupations in over
1,100 industries. This report highlights some of the most significant trends among three
sections, including an overview of the labor force and its changing demographic
composition, employment in industries and employment in occupations.
Highlights
- The number of people working or looking for a job is expected to reach 164 million
by 2016. This number excludes people who are active-duty members of the U.S.
Armed Forces, are institutionalized or are younger than 16 years of age.
- The older labor force, the 55 years and older group, is projected to grow by 47
percent, more than five times the growth projected for the aggregate labor force.
More specifically, the number of labor force groups aging 65 to 74 years old and 75
years and older are expected to grow by 83 and 84 percent respectively.
- The number of women in the labor force is projected to grow by almost 9 percent,
faster than the 8 percent growth projected for men.
- While Asians are expected to increase in the labor force at a rate of nearly 30 percent,
the group of “all other races” (which includes multiple racial origins, American
Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders) is expected to
increase the fastest at a rate of 32 percent as compared to non-Hispanic racial groups.
- Due to higher birth rates and increased immigration among the Hispanic and Latino
population, this group is projected to grow by 30 percent, resulting in nearly 27
million Hispanics in the labor force in 2016. However, the Caucasian population will
make up the largest share of the labor force by about 80 percent in 2016.
- Over the 2006-2016 period, employment growth will be concentrated in the service-providing
sectors. Professional and business services and healthcare and social
assistance represent the industry sectors with the strongest projected employment
growth. These two industry sectors are projected to grow more than twice as fast as
the average for all industries, increasing by more than 4 million jobs in each sector.
On the other hand, Federal government, manufacturing and natural resources and
mining in the industry sector are projected to decline in employment.
- The management, scientific and technical consulting services industry is projected to
gain the most new jobs by 718,000 over the 2006-2016 period. In contrast, the
gasoline station industry is projected to lose about 146,000 jobs during the same
period.
- Eight out of the 20 detailed industries with the most new jobs in wage-and-salary
employment are related to healthcare, social assistance and education. Eleven out of
the 20 industries projected to lose the most jobs are in the manufacturing sector.
- Professional and related occupations and service occupations are projected to
increase by 17 percent each, creating nearly 5 million new jobs in each occupational
group. On the other hand, production occupations will decline in jobs by 528,000
during the 2006-2016 period.
- Fifteen out of the 20 occupations that are projected to grow the fastest are related to
healthcare or computers.
- Registered nurses are expected to gain the most new jobs by 587,000, followed by
retail salespersons by 557,000 new jobs over the 2006-2016 period.
- Stock clerks and order fillers are expected to lose the largest number of jobs by
131,000, followed by cashiers, except gaming, by 118,000 jobs over the 2006-2016
period. A partial reason for these declines is improved productivity by advancing
information technology and increased use of online/automated services.
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